Military activity by Belarus at the Ukrainian border: what implications does this have for Kyiv's security?

In recent weeks, Belarus has increased its military activity near the border with Ukraine. Units of the Belarusian Ground Forces have been deployed to areas close to the Chernihiv region. This information is reported by TSN.ua.

What is happening at the border with Belarus?
From December 23 to January 5, the monitoring group "Belaruski Hayun" recorded a significant increase in military presence in the Stolin, Lelchitsy, Mozyr, and Gomel regions. At the end of December, the arrival of a military transport aircraft Il-76 from Russia to Belarus was also noted.

What does this mean for Ukraine?
Such actions have raised concerns, as they may indicate preparations for new military operations. Belarus might be getting ready to use its territory as a launchpad for potential attacks by the Russian army on Ukraine, which raises safety concerns for Kyiv and the surrounding regions.

What do experts and border guards say?
The current situation at the Ukraine-Belarus border was discussed by the spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, Andriy Demchenko, and military expert, former spokesperson of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Vladyslav Seleznev.

When asked whether Russia could again use Belarusian territory for airstrikes against Ukraine, Vladyslav Seleznev gave a clear answer: "Of course."
He emphasized that this threat remains relevant, and the likelihood of its realization in the future persists.

"Let’s remember the events of January and February 2022, when Lukashenko claimed that Belarusian territory would never serve as a launchpad for attacks by the Russian army. It turned out that it did. Therefore, we must always be vigilant. It is no coincidence that the Ukrainian General Staff has to maintain a large set of forces and means precisely on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. This is why we have carried out significant work to create engineering fortifications there. We continue to stay alert due to the potential aggression from the north," he stated.

Possibility of a new offensive on Kyiv: Expert opinions
Throughout nearly three years of war, military analysts have repeatedly raised the question of the possibility of a renewed enemy offensive on Kyiv. Even now, despite current defensive efforts, such threats cannot be ruled out.

What threat does Belarus pose?
According to experts, in the context of the ongoing conflict, it is possible that Belarus could be used for aggressive actions against Ukraine. The potential for the airspace and territory of Belarus to be used for attacks should not be ignored, despite all efforts of Ukrainian defense.

How are Kyiv and its surroundings protected?
Currently, Kyiv and the Kyiv region are defended by significant defensive fortifications; however, many details regarding this matter remain confidential. At the same time, the situation along threatening directions, such as the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, remains under control, but potential risks persist.

"First of all, we need to talk about how the situation can change and what threat it poses to Ukraine. The intelligence units of Ukraine are monitoring this. I would also add that since 2022, trying to shift the responsibility onto Ukraine, Belarus has constantly engaged in rhetoric that we threaten their security, forgetting that they opened their border to Russians for an attack on Ukraine," Demchenko stated.

He noted that under the pretext of enhancing defense, Belarus continues to conduct various military exercises while simultaneously maintaining a certain number of its units along the border with Ukraine. This creates an impression of the country's enhanced defensive capabilities.

Regarding reports of troop concentration in border areas, Demchenko clarified that such activity is taking place, but it is important to understand the context and monitor further steps.

"There may also be rotations of these units, but their numbers are not increasing. At the moment, there is no striking group positioned towards our border that poses a threat to us - such a thing has not been observed. There have also been no changes in the situation recorded, nor have any equipment or personnel been noted in close proximity to our border," he added.

Are there Russian troops in Belarus?

In summary, Andriy Demchenko noted that there are currently no Russian units on Belarusian territory, as was the case previously. Last year, the number of Russian troops in Belarus could have reached up to 10-12 thousand, but over time, Russia withdrew these forces to its territory without replacing them with new ones.

The head of the Center for Counteracting Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, Andriy Kovalенко, also confirmed that at present, Belarus does not pose a threat to Ukraine.
Additionally, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, recently claimed that someone is allegedly trying to draw Ukraine into a war with his country. He added that he would do everything possible to maintain peace in Belarus, emphasizing that if drawn into the conflict, the country might not withstand its consequences.

As a reminder, the General Staff reported on where Russians most frequently attack. The Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled 24 attacks from the aggressor in the Kursk direction, notes the General Staff.