In 2024, half a million people are expected to leave Ukraine, according to the National Bank of Ukraine, which outlined the reasons behind this migration.

The ongoing war and severe electricity shortages will lead to continued mass migration. This year, 500,000 people are expected to leave Ukraine. This information is reported in the "Inflation Report" from the National Bank of Ukraine for October 2024.

"In the summer of 2024, the risk of a greater outflow of migrants abroad materialized than previously anticipated due to the very challenging energy situation," the review notes.

Due to the increase in the outflow of external migrants in 2024, the estimate of net outflow has been revised downward compared to previous forecasts (to about 500,000 people). In July, the NBU expected 400,000. However, this larger outflow this year indicates that the number of those planning and able to leave is decreasing. Therefore, it is anticipated that in 2025, the outflow of migrants will be lower than previously projected (around 200,000 compared to the 300,000 the NBU expected in July).

As before, a net return of migrants to Ukraine is expected to begin in 2026. However, due to the process of adapting to new conditions and the gradual normalization of the economic situation in Ukraine, the number of returnees is expected to be lower than previously estimated (approximately 200,000 people). In July, the National Bank anticipated the return of 400,000 people, but those forecasts turned out to be overly optimistic.

"The risks of a greater outflow of migrants abroad and a lesser return continue to prevail. Due to the prolonged duration of Ukrainians' stay abroad, their adaptation in host countries is increasing, which poses risks both for their return and for additional departures of those currently in Ukraine, aimed at family reunification abroad," the review states.

This will negatively impact the labor market's supply of workforce and reduce potential consumer demand. The growing needs of the economy for skilled specialists will further exacerbate imbalances in the labor market and stimulate wage growth above productivity growth rates in certain sectors, as noted by the National Bank of Ukraine. It is worth recalling that during 2023, the number of refugees from Ukraine increased by approximately 200,000 people.

It was previously reported that Zelensky stated: the return of Ukrainians from abroad should be voluntary. The President of Ukraine emphasized that the state will not pressure citizens who left for abroad after the onset of Russian aggression to return.