The surroundings of Novoselki: Implications for the frontlines.

Russian troops continue their offensive in Donbas. On January 19, the OSUV Khortytsia reported that the Russians attempted to block Velyka Novosilka, taking advantage of the challenging weather conditions. To support the advance, the Russian army deployed armored vehicles.

On January 18, analysts from the DeepState project reported that Russian forces had made gains near Velyka Novosilka.

Encirclement Attempt

According to the Ukrainian General Staff's report at the end of January 22, Russian troops are still concentrating their main efforts in the Pokrovsk direction: on that day, about two-thirds of all combat engagements along the front line occurred there.

In recent days, Ukrainian military bloggers have reported that the garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in Velyka Novosilka is in an extremely difficult situation, trapped in a Russian encirclement with a very narrow neck.

The General Staff of the AFU has not commented on this, only briefly notifying about a number of combat engagements in the area.

The 110th brigade reported that near Velyka Novosilka, Ukrainian units are experiencing a severe shortage of personnel, despite having sufficient artillery and drones available.

“Right now, there are enough weapons and drones to fly, but no one to fight. There is a complete lack of personnel in the infantry units,” the publication NV quotes military personnel.

Soldiers report that Russian assaults usually occur in groups of 4 to 6, attacking Ukrainian positions from various directions. The most active enemy actions are observed at dawn when visibility significantly worsens due to fog or rain, complicating aerial reconnaissance. Enemy units use thickets and vegetation to avoid being targeted by FPV drones.

“Unfortunately, it must be noted that the time is coming to make a decision regarding the withdrawal of troops stationed there. I try not to give such advice, but the trend suggests that there may not be an operational encirclement, but rather a physical one, meaning the complete encirclement of this settlement,” states military analyst Denis Popovych.

Dangerous Breakthrough

Velyka Novosilka is a crucial defensive center for the AFU, controlling the junction of the borders of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia regions. In mid-January, the Russian Armed Forces group, advancing from the southwest, captured the villages of Neskuchne and Vremivka. This deprived the AFU of the ability to establish crossings over the Mokri Yaly River, which separates Velyka Novosilka from the “mainland.”

From the north, the district center has been cut off from the main AFU forces for several weeks now.

The capture of Velyka Novosilka would allow the Russian grouping to advance along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia highway across a wide front, pushing Ukrainian forces back west of the outskirts of Kurakhove.