The path for Ukraine to the EU may be prolonged by at least 5 years and will be accompanied by numerous challenges, reports Politeka.net.
According to Le Figaro, Ukraine submitted its application for EU membership just five days after the onset of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, and by June of that year, it received candidate status. However, the publication notes that the accession process may be hampered by a lack of sufficient security guarantees from NATO.
At the NATO summit in July 2024, allies confirmed that Ukraine's future lies within the Alliance. However, recent statements and political circumstances indicate that Ukraine is unlikely to receive immediate NATO membership, and this issue may drag on for years. Without NATO support, Ukraine's integration into the EU is expected to be significantly more problematic, experts believe. Article 42-7 of the European Treaty provides assistance to EU member states in the event of armed aggression, but without a common EU defense architecture, this assistance is limited, according to Politeka.
Fabrice Potier, President of the consulting firm Rasmussen Global, notes that NATO is the only force capable of providing real security guarantees for Ukraine. Without this support, 8 million Ukrainian refugees may not return home, and investments in the country's recovery may be minimal. This could lead to catastrophic consequences for Ukraine's stability and development.
Furthermore, although Ukraine's accession process to the EU is progressing, significant political and economic barriers remain. Currently, Ukraine and Brussels have agreed to open several "clusters" for integration by mid-2025; however, actual accession may take more than five years.
Source: lefigaro.